Today I have 2 match previews for the last 16. I will post the rest in due course. I am previewing the games trying to predict the betting odds at kick-off as I don’t currently have a strong belief that bets can be good if they are not ahead of the closing line.
Canada vs. Morocco
Figure 1
MIR = Market Implied (team) Rating
GS ADJ = Game state adjustment (I’m seeing quite a large game state effect in the World Cup. Leading teams so far have performed at a level of around +0.2 adjusted xG per game which is massively offset by leading teams being significantly better to the tune of around +0.8 adjusted xG per game. This makes performance in leading game states around -0.6 xG per game. In domestic leagues the largest game state effect I’ve seen is around -0.4xG or -0.5xG per game.)
BC ADJ = Big chance adjustment (An adjustment for whether teams have logged an unexpectedly good or bad big chance differential relative to their underlying rating).
HOME ADV CORRECTED = As Canada have played 3 of their first 4 matches in Canada and this match will be played in Houston, Canada get downrated by 0.75 (3 of their first 4) x 0.3 (estimated home advantage for games in Canada) = 0.225 (see Home Adv Corrected) column.
My player-based team ratings (from my World Cup preview) are now ditched and I’m using a combination of previous market closing lines and performance ratings for the 4 World Cup games each team has played thus far. Previous market closing lines are adjusted if I think teams had differing motivations or a team began to under/over perform expectations enough across the World Cup such that the rating of each opponent is not correct. For example, in this case Morocco’s MIR vs. Haiti (RD3) is rated down a small amount because of waning motivation for Haiti. (As an example for the second point, Paraguay now appears to have been rated strongly against the USA but that’s because the rating of the USA has since risen. In that case Paraguay’s market inferred rating against the USA would be rated down.)
Both these teams have impressed this tournament – you can see by the MIR values increasing each round. Canada’s is increasing it just appears to have decreased in the last 32 because they lost their home advantage!
Whatever weight of MIRs and performance I use here doesn’t matter – I’m seeing Morocco as ~0.75 favs. Chadi Riad is a major doubt which is a small negative for Morocco, and they also have had 1 day less rest and played for 120 minutes against the Netherlands. Alphonso Davies might be fit enough to start for Canada which really could be a boost to Canada’s hopes.
The market has been up and down a lot but now sits with Morocco around 0.8 goal favourites. 12 hours ago, Morocco was closer to 0.65 (if the Morocco -0.75 line is decimal odds of 2.2 that’s equivalent to being 0.75 goal favourites). I think we might see Morocco drift out a little again before kick-off if my analysis is accurate enough.
My predicted closing odds are 5.5 – 3.575 – 1.86
Paraguay vs. France
Figure 2
Paraguay meets France in Philadelphia for what is expected to be a one-sided affair. Paraguay went to penalties against Germany but have had 1 more day rest than France. As you can see in these tables, Paraguay’s group stage performances were seemingly poor and their MIRs suffered as a result. Interestingly, it’s going to be extremely hot in Philadelphia today which could be a useful confounding factor for Paraguay.
Paraguay’s performance against Germany will have stopped their MIR slide although France looked electric against Sweden. Diego Gomez returns from suspension, but Omar Alderete is injured. France has lost Aurelien Tchouameni to injury.
The market is currently at around France 1.94 goal favs. I have a slight interest in Paraguay because I think the heat might blunt France’s attack enough to make 3 or 4 goal victories less likely.
My predicted closing odds for the 2-goal Asian handicap market is
Paraguay +2 1.83, France -2 2.2
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