Let’s review the performances & MIRs (betting market inferred ratings) of Spain and Argentina this World Cup and use them to preview one of the biggest games in football. Figure 1 The first two rows show the performances of each 2 finalists for each of their World Cup games so far.  It’s expressed as a…

Introduction When considering why I predicted the closing line wrong for Mexico/England and Spain/Belgium it dawned on me I *may* have had a flaw in my approach to football betting for the last 9 years.  I’ve put a lot of work into developing my ratings with numerous adjustments, but it was the conversion of the…

I am writing previews for the last 3 quarter finals.  First up, Spain vs. Belgium then the next two will follow very soon!  I will review the betting odds implied levels of the teams and as well as World Cup performances so far.  I want to compare what I think the betting line should be…

Last 16 remaining previews I had a good day yesterday predicting the correct direction for price moves in both games.  (Both prices moved a bit more than I expected though.) Let’s look ahead to more Last 16 games.  A lot of betting lines have already moved but there is still potential for more movement.  Check…

Today I have 2 match previews for the last 16.  I will post the rest in due course.  I am previewing the games trying to predict the betting odds at kick-off as I don’t currently have a strong belief that bets can be good if they are not ahead of the closing line. Canada vs.…