Earlier on in the season I posted some league points projections from different models/websites.  Today let’s look at how each performed. 6 Gameweek projection League one & League two https://syzygyanalytics.co.uk/2025/09/06/efl-league-one-2025-26-6-gameweeks-in/ https://syzygyanalytics.co.uk/2025/09/06/efl-league-two-2025-26-6-gameweeks-in/ This was a comparison between 2 prediction methods, my metric and the Spreadex points spreads. Figure 1 Spreadex’s prediction error was much less.  We’d…

Over the last month I have been doing a lot of performance reviews of my football ratings.  I wanted to prove that capping the value of an xG chance is a useful thing to do.  I had this idea from a very early stage in my football analytics journey and today I want to share…

Unfortunately, a bad weekend last time out where a lot of my line predictions were wrong (I did a PL week 27 preview).  A lot of it was bad line-up news but that couldn’t explain all of the error.  More work needed! In today’s quick post we are going to consider whether teams can perform…

Last time I did this for week 25 my predicted prices were a little less accurate than the early prices.  The biggest miss was Manchester City as money came in for Liverpool.  By kick off these teams lined up as approximately equal strength.  It seems like Doku & Gvardiol are seen as important and maybe…

Introduction This week I’m want to test a variety of different metrics to compare their predictive power.  I have always focused on the predictive and I think providing value as an analyst is almost solely a function of predictive analysis than descriptive.  For this reason I am less interested in a descriptive idea such as…

This week I am writing down my thoughts on week 25 of the Premier League.  My goal is to beat the closing lines, so let’s try and nail down what I think the true price for every game should be!  I am working on the assumption that the closing price = the true price. Leeds…

In my last article I looked for evidence that manager changes had an effect on a team’s performance. I did not see any evidence that sacking a manager had a positive effect on the teams included in that sample (5 leagues from the 2024/25 season.) This week I have done the same analysis for a…

Introduction Football managers form a large part of football culture in Europe and beyond with hirings and sacking making up a decent chunk of the column inches written on football. Similarly, they are paid handsomely, with wages of the top managers comparing well with wages of the top players.  Today I am looking at data…