Last 16 remaining previews
I had a good day yesterday predicting the correct direction for price moves in both games. (Both prices moved a bit more than I expected though.)
Let’s look ahead to more Last 16 games. A lot of betting lines have already moved but there is still potential for more movement. Check the previous previews for more information on the graphics shared in this post.
Brazil vs. Norway
Brazil put up good numbers in a 1 goal win against Japan. Norway’s performances really haven’t been all that special except for the game against France. That’s an odd one as it gets up-rated quite significantly because Norway played a weakened team for that game. It seems like a negative that their performance rating is propped up by that game.
Brazil, meanwhile, has lineup concerns. Raphinha won’t be fully fit, although he has been injured for the last 2.5 games anyway. Casemiro is a small doubt and Paqueta is also out. Norway’s performances want to push me more towards the 1 goal fav side of things, but Brazil’s injuries pull me back. Brazil are currently 0.75-0.8 goal favourites which I agree with for the moment.
Predicted money line: 1.88 (Brazil) – 3.8 – 4.8 (Norway)
Mexico vs. England
This is an interesting one. England are currently rated as 0.2 goal favourites which is a long way off what the MIRs and performances would imply. Of course, the home advantage and altitude of the game is a huge deal, but it’s already included in all the above data – Mexico have played ¾ of their games so far in Mexico City (and the other at 1500m in Guadalajara). England have some health concerns – Declan Rice has been playing through a lot of pain and Reece James’ world cup is over. However, there is a chance Saka could make his first start of the tournament.
Mexico have spent a lot of time winning but that’s represented by their large GS adjustment. I just can’t get all the way from the data above to England only being favoured by 0.2 goals. I’ll be aggressive here:
Predicted closing price: 2.28 (England) – 3.15 – 4.1 (Mexico)
It’s unlikely the line will move this much but we will see.
Portugal vs. Spain
Another interesting dilemma as the two rating methods say different things. Portugal are rated like a strong team but except for against Uzbekistan they really haven’t played like a strong team. There is of course a massive question over whether Christiano Ronaldo is still good enough to play for Portugal. Spain are currently around 0.55 goal favourites which requires a high weight on the performances of Portugal so far and a low weight on the betting markets. If Ronaldo didn’t start, I think Spain would be worth imposing. I can’t put complete stock in Portugal being as poor as some of their performance, so I’ll respect the market rating of Portugal so far and predict:
4.04 (Portugal) – 3.75 – 2.06 (Spain)
USA vs. Belgium
Belgium closed an even money shot against Senegal in the last 32, something many were surprised to see. This was in part because of strong performances against Iran and New Zealand. They were very ordinary against Egypt and Senegal so it feels tricky to gauge which Belgium will show up. The USA miss Balogun after his controversial red card. The markets certainly like Belgium and I think they will again.
Predicted closing line:
2.9 (USA)– 3.55 – 2.68 (Belgium)
Argentina vs. Egypt
I ‘m pretty in line here with the ~1.4 goal current line market line. Argentina have spent a massive amount of minutes winning so far but are coming off a difficult game against Cape Verde.
Predicted closing line: 1.405 – 5.15 – 11.25 (no change)
Switzerland vs. Colombia
No disagreement here either, I think around 60% weight on MIR is about right which puts me right in line with the betting market.
Predicted closing line: 3.925- 2.31 – 3.225
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