Finally, the group stage has finished, one of the 495 possible permutations of 3rd place finishers that could happen, has happened, and we arrive at a 32-team straight knockout. Let’s preview the last 32!
- All ratings are in the unit of expected goals per game
- Betting market inferred ratings and 2026 WC performances are schedule adjusted to the best of my ability.
- Check out my World cup preview for a lot more information on the player-based team ratings
My odds vs. Market odds
Figure 1
Game by game
Brazil vs. Japan
I rate Brazil as 0.78 goal favourites here which is currently quite close to the global betting markets. As you can see by the performance ratings, Brazil have been mediocre at times during this World Cup so far. Brazil likely miss Raphinha (a player I rate very highly) while Ko Itakura will likely not be fit to start for Japan. Raphinha played 1.5 games in the groups stages which influences all 3 constituent parts of my overall team rating (which have a 2x Betting Market inferred : 1x WC Performance : 1x Player Rating weighting). Therefore, no Raphinha means Brazil should be downgraded a little bit. Itakura is a loss for Japan also but not quite as significant.
I think a small lean to Japan can be justified. Just as I’m writing this Brazil have drifted from 1.78 -> 1.81. Just putting the finishing touches to this post and lineups are out and Brazil are now 1.84. Hopefully this is not the only correct lean I have in the post!
Germany vs. Paraguay
This is right in line with the betting market again for Germany vs. Paraguay. Germany are strongly favoured here to secure a last 16 spot. Paraguay’s group performances were not very impressive at all.
Netherlands vs. Morocco
2 solid teams face off here in Mexico. Morocco’ s performances have been at least on a par with the Netherlands so far, but other factors give Netherlands the edge here.
Ivory Coast vs. Norway
There’s a bit of a disagreement with each rating system but overall, I think Norway as half goal favourites is reasonable.
France vs. Sweden
It’s interesting how little France rotated in the group stage – not what you’d expect from a team with a squad like theirs! Sweden has some players to be weary of (I have had a slight Sweden lean this tournament) so if I did lean a side it’s definitely Sweden.
Mexico vs. Ecuador
I have this as an equal matchup, which is very interesting. Mexico are once again playing in Mexico City (over 2000 metres above sea level), something which is key to consider. The first two parts of the rating already include said home advantage (markets obviously consider it, and on pitch performance boosted by the home advantage) but the player-based team rating is not. If Mexico’s home advantage is worth 0.5 goals, then this adds ~0.13 on to their rating. It could be argued Mexico’s home advantage is slightly lower in this game as Ecuador are used to playing games at high altitude (because of their own high-altitude stadium in Quito).
Why are the betting markets so much higher on Mexico? If I’m wrong, I could be undervaluing just how much home advantage there is. Even the ball flies and bounces different in the high altitude so maybe Mexico are able to enjoy a huge advantage in this way (an advantage that will keep increasing as they play more games in Mexico City). My ratings favour Mexico by only 0.08 goals after the adjustment which does make me keen to get Ecuador on side we just have to be wary of how large the home advantage could really be. I’m disappointed to read Ecuador are only travelling to Mexico City the day before…
England vs. DR Congo
England are strong favourites here, I agree with the market rating of 1.7 goals. Going just be performances so far this tournament it could well be another grind for England.
Belgium vs. Senegal
An intriguing matchup takes place in Seattle on Wednesday. I have it as a bit closer to a 50-50 match than the betting markets currently depict. Belgium played fairly well in their final 2 group games and missed Jeremy Doku (a player I rate highly) for parts of that. If my betting market inferred ratings are correct, I think the betting lines will move a little bit towards Senegal
USA vs. Bosnia & Herzegovina
The USA are rated very strong favourites in the betting market, and, like Mexico, I don’t have see them as quite such a strong favourite. Home advantage is only worth around 0.1 goals on top of the overall team ratings shown here (as the player-based rating is the only rating to not already include the home advantage). Pulisic will be fit which is very important for the USA so I only have a slight preference to Bosnia.
Spain vs. Austria
This is the last-32 match with the biggest divergence between my opinion and the current opinion of the global betting markets. I have been low on Spain since pre-tournament (too many players who play for mid-table Spanish sides) and a bit high on Austria. Lamine Yamal did not feature too heavily in the group stages which is something that is not properly factored in here. My player ratings measure the difference between Yamal and Ferran Torres as about a quarter of a goal per game. Yamal only played half the minutes in the group stage meaning Spain’s performances were hurt by around 0.13 xG diff per game. As I’m 0.6 goals away from the betting line, this isn’t enough to explain the 1.5 goal line.
Portugal vs. Croatia
This is close to what the betting markets say but I can see a case for leaning towards Croatia when considering performance data only.
Switzerland vs. Algeria
There’s quite a satisfying parity between Algeria’s metrics. Switzerland have been drifting but still look a bit over-valued by my calculations.
Australia vs. Egypt
Another really close game! Again I think it’s slightly closer to 50/50 than the market currently thinks.
Argentina vs. Cape Verde
Despite not being particularly high on Argentina this tournament I am surprised to see them as mere 2 goals favourites for this game. Argentina rested and rotated a fair bit in their group games as well. A potential issue with my approach is lack of focus on the total goal lines. Is this match low scoring enough (both sides have low scoring tendencies for their level) to mean that Argentina are not 2.6 goal favourites after all.
Colombia vs. Ghana
The rating components are quite inconsistent here. I rate Ghana’s players quite highly but performances relative to Colombia leave a lot to be desired. I could see a case for backing Colombia here as it is only my player ratings keeping my ratings as close as they are (just over 1 goal apart).
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