Last time I did this for week 25 my predicted prices were a little less accurate than the early prices. The biggest miss was Manchester City as money came in for Liverpool. By kick off these teams lined up as approximately equal strength. It seems like Doku & Gvardiol are seen as important and maybe Liverpool were seen to be finding form again vs. City losing it. City played well in the game but I don’t really believe closing prices are beatable (making money while backing at kick off).
All the prices are derived from season performances (in depth metrics) and expected lineups for the game. I will discuss points of interest/contention for each game.
Aston Villa vs. Leeds
Market price (home -draw away) (Wednesday 18th February) 1.915 3.725 4.85
It looks like Stach and Struik are fit for this game (this is very important). Villa have a question mark with Matty Cash. I have Villa priced up right around the evens mark here.
Predicted 2 3.8 4.25
Brentford vs. Brighton
Market price (home -draw away) (18th February) 2.05 3.925 3.875
My biggest position of the week. Brentford still seem a little unfashionable but should be back to full health (with Schade back) and Brighton are quite ordinary. Brentford should go odds on here; this is one I will be disappointed to get wrong.
Predicted: 1.9 3.9 4.5
Chelsea vs. Burnley
Market price (home -draw away) (18th February) 1.245 7.9 14.75
My spreadsheet is saying Chelsea 1.3 just based on 25/26 performance. However, once you add Chelsea being relatively fresher (no Europe/cups this week compared to the rest of the season), Burnley having poor form (since Cullen injury seemingly) and Chelsea’s lineup between stronger than their average (Palmer, Caicedo) this season I agree with the current price.
Predicted: 1.245 7.9 14.75
West Ham vs. Bournemouth
Market price (home -draw away) (18th February) 2.52 3.825 2.92
A tricky one in my opinion. West Ham’s recent form is substantially different from the whole season so it’s a question of how much weight to put on this. 2.7 was available early in the week on West Ham which I did not take. Bournemouth’s performances were expecting to drop more since they lost Semenyo and had other injuries, but they have been playing respectably. I’m sticking with the current market price.
Predicted: 2.52 3.825 2.92
Manchester City vs. Newcastle
Market price (home -draw away) (18th February) 1.45 5.85 7.4
Newcastle will be injured and tired for this game. This is already well factored into the price as City are only a tick or two longer than their starting price vs. Fulham. Their performance against Fulham was ok, but you can’t ignore the chances they conceded just because they were 3-0 up.
EDIT: Thursday 19th. 1.515 5.35 6.7. City have drifted after Newcastle’s performance mid-week in Azerbaijan. I’ve been surprised about the money against City recently, I suppose poor form and the absence of Doku and Gvardiol. City get quite a large positive game state adjustment in my ratings – they have spent so many minutes ahead. Their performance at tied is comfortably top of the league. Haaland is a fitness doubt which is a big issue as well.
Predicted: 1.515 5.35 6.7
Crystal Palace vs. Wolves
Market price (home -draw away) (18th February) 1.64 4.35 6.3
Wolves must be close to checking out. They were dreadful against Forest and are potentially not that fresh for this game after an FA Cup game on Sunday and Arsenal on Wednesday. Palace have a UECL match on Thursday so I will want to see how many players they rest before being confident of a Palace shorten.
Predicted: 1.55 4.59 7.3
Nottingham Forest vs. Liverpool
Market price (home -draw away) (18th February) 4.55 4.15 1.855
Forest are in Turkey on Thursday night which really feels like not what they need right now. It complicates this game as Liverpool will be fresh and raring to go. I don’t know how seriously Forest will take the EL game so I’m not making a play for now.
Predicted: 4.235 4.15 1.87
Sunderland vs. Fulham
Market price (home -draw away) (18th February) 2.79 3.375 2.87
Sunderland will still be without Xhaka but otherwise both sides are quite healthy. Sunderland look big currently in my eyes. I rate the performance of the 2 teams this season about equally. The situation then tips in Fulham’s favour because of Fulham’s fresh lineup and Sunderland missing Xhaka. They both missed players for AFCON so really the difference is just Xhaka and I can’t get all the way from Sunderland 2.25 (given my comment on the teams being equal strength) to 2.8 so I’m siding with Sunderland here.
Predicted: 2.5 4.2 2.76
Tottenham vs. Arsenal
Market price (home -draw away) (18th February) 6.9 4.35 1.605
I agree with this line
Predicted: 6.9 4.35 1.61
Everton vs. Manchester United
Market price (home -draw away) (18th February) 3.825 4.02 2.03
2 healthy sides except for Grealish. I have a small lean towards Everton.
Predicted: 3.67 4.02 2.09
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