This week I am writing down my thoughts on week 25 of the Premier League. My goal is to beat the closing lines, so let’s try and nail down what I think the true price for every game should be! I am working on the assumption that the closing price = the true price.
Leeds vs. Nottingham Forest
Market price (home – draw – away) (3pm GMT Friday 6th February): 2.29 – 3.425 – 3.675
A tricky one because there is some disagreement between previous market prices for Leeds and my ratings. My spreadsheet is spitting out 2.07 Leeds (an advanced metric using team performance from this season and predicted lineup strength compared to averages for each team). That doesn’t consider whether this game has a draw bias – both teams may feel like a point is a reasonable result? Leeds have much better form in the last half of the season so if you have a read that’s signal rather than noise then this could mean Leeds should be shorter. Leeds’ rating this season might be slightly hot and Forest’s might be slightly cold. Leeds underperformance this season relative to shooting metrics is included a bit in my rating but possibly it deserves a little more weight.
Quite torn but I’m going to go with a true price of the same as the market
Predicted Closing price: 2.29 – 3.425 – 3.675
Manchester United vs. Tottenham
Market price (home – draw – away) (3pm GMT Friday 6th February): 1.615 – 4.95 – 5.65
Tottenham’s injuries are a little shaky but if we can be confident that Romero/Van de Ven and Solanke are all good to start I’m predicting a small move back towards Tottenham. Tottenham are still quite injured but have been all season so we can potentially call Spurs’ line-up ‘average’ while the added freshness of not having CL (not a factor for United who never had CL) is also key.
Predicted Closing price: 1.67 – 4.63 – 5.41
Arsenal vs. Sunderland
Market price (home – draw – away) (3pm GMT Friday 6th February): 1.245 – 7.1 – 17.75
Arsenal minus Saka and plus Havertz while Sunderland still have no Xhaka are all relevant considerations but in the end, I have no disagreement with the current line.
Predicted Closing price: 1.245-7.1-17.75
Bournemouth vs. Villa
Market price (home – draw – away) (3pm GMT Friday 6th February): 2.76 – 3.725 – 2.7
Another difficult one as the lineups for these teams have not been consistent recently. Bournemouth have lost Semenyo to Manchester City and Tavernier to a hamstring injury, but their last few performances have remained competitive. Villa have numerous injury issues but also some good news like Onana is back, and Luiz/Abraham signings. In the end I am currently going for:
Predicted Closing price: 2.86 – 3.78 – 2.60
Burnley vs. West Ham
Market price (home – draw – away) (3pm GMT Friday 6th February): 3.475 – 3.675 – 2.27
Burnley have been very poor in their last few games. Josh Cullen appears to be a very important loss. Surprisingly I estimate both teams to field starting lineups about level with their season averages (using transfermarkt.com player values). This would show dramatic value on Burnley and even adjusting for Burnley’s recent poor performances I put enough stock in a few bad performances to justify the starting price we see now.
Predicted Closing price: 3.1 – 3.62 – 2.43
Fulham vs. Everton
Market price (home – draw – away) (3pm GMT Friday 6th February): 2.21 – 3.425 – 3.925
I rate Everton slightly better and additionally think their predicted lineup is better than their average this season. This is because of valuable African players they missed during AFCON, Branthwaite’s return and an otherwise fit lineup. The loss of Grealish is obviously disappointing but more than made up by these factors.
Predicted Closing price: 2.34 – 3.37 – 3.57
Wolves vs. Chelsea
Market price (home – draw – away) (3pm GMT Friday 6th February): 5.4 – 4.35 – 1.705
Some of Chelsea’s key players (Caicedo/Fernandez) have played a lot of minutes recently but Palmer should be good to start here. Wolves race is nearly run so I have a slight preference to Chelsea
Predicted Closing price: 6.2 – 4.3 – 1.65
Newcastle vs. Brentford
Market price (home – draw – away) (7pm GMT Friday 6th February): 2.15 – 3.725 – 3.775
Newcastle are fairly injured – Gordon is probably out, Guimaraes is 50/50, Joelinton is out plus various other defenders. Brentford have a key suspension in Kevin Schade who was sent off against Aston Villa. Brentford are surprisingly good, so I see some value siding with them at the current prices.
Predicted Closing price: 2.28 – 3.83 – 3.33
Brighton vs. Crystal Palace
Market price (home – draw – away) (7pm GMT Friday 6th February): 2.09 – 3.725 – 3.975
Palace are recovering from their slump and face a Brighton lineup that is strong as it’s been all season.
I’ve changed my mind a few times on how to rate Palace here, so I’ll just settle on no movement
Predicted closing price 2.09 – 3.725 – 3.975
Liverpool vs. Manchester City
Market price (home – draw – away) (9pm GMT Friday 6th February): 2.43 – 3.875 – 3.025
Manchester City had a cup tie mid-week but were able to rest a few key players. Liverpool’s line-up is in good shape with Salah poised to find some form again. City are minus Doku and Gvardiol, both of whom are big misses. I’m struggling to justify Liverpool being the price they are. I have City provisionally priced at 2.5 which is quite far from the market price. I hope Ruben Dias can return but it could be argued that coordinating with a new teammate (Guehi) for the first time away to Liverpool is not ideal. I must still favour Manchester City here
Predicted closing price: 2.67 – 3.91 – 2.67
I’ll review these predictions next week to see how many I got right. I will be trading these positions on the Betfair Exchange.
I’m also working on an ultimate metric comparison to illustrate how metrics like raw xG or shot totals compare to my more complex team rating metric. I hope to post more on this in the next few weeks.
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Thanks for reading!
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