Inspired by a betting article from Ted Knutson at thetransferflow.com I’m now comparing my goal handicap line to that of the betting market.
Check out my team ratings here:
Columbus Crew vs. Orlando City
I didn’t see enough in this for a bet but then there was money for Orlando today. Hmm.
Now I have it as a Columbus bet. I rate them as the best team and Mohamed Farsi being out is countered by a fit team otherwise (i.e. they’ve not had every player fit all season). Orlando are good as well but better than Columbus (this is implied once you remove home advantage)? I don’t think so.
FC Dallas vs. New York City
Is Lucho Acosta playing? It’s frustrating not knowing these things. He’s not listed as out anywhere but I can’t find anything saying he’s back in (after being out for personal reasons). I’m close to a Dallas bet but NYC have got better as the season has gone on. My ratings don’t give any credit for stronger recent performances unless the team is using a lot of new players (I don’t think NYC are). Thiago Martins is out as he’s having knee surgery so if Acosta is in maybe I like Dallas.
San Diego vs. Nashville
This line has been going up and down a bit. Nashville get some negative regression in my ratings for not being as good last season with a similar team. San Diego have defensive injuries which are tricky to judge but if San Diego approach 2.7 (+170) again, that looks big to me.
Atlanta vs. Seattle
I can’t see any important injuries so a Seattle bet looks ok here. Seattle’s lineup looks as solid as it has been all season. (but my ratings already consider this)
Vancouver Whitecaps vs. Sporting Kansas
I rate Kansas as the worst team. Vancouver are a little odd, as with an apparently weaker lineup this season (no Ryan Gauld) they have one of the best teams in MLS. There’s a case for regression on both sides here so I’m swerving for now. I will probably kick myself if money comes for Vancouver..
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