Syzygy Analytics

These are my estimates of true odds for this weekend’s matches.  I’ve had a good couple of weeks with plenty of lines moving in my favour (sorry I didn’t post mid-week).

I’m not very confident about DC United, I’m not sure about their team (Benteke out?) and longer prices inflates the ROI.  (I’ll work on a better way of displaying this.) 

St Louis didn’t play midweek which I haven’t included in my odds so that reduces the interest there a bit. 

My favourite bet is Minnesota this weekend.  Vancouver look good as well although late money often opposes them.  They rate well this season but it’s a bit surprising they rate as well as they do (no Ryan Gauld and they weren’t this good last season.)

Santos have Neymar now and I’ve probably not got enough weight on it.  I have been high on Mirassol so I’m not ruling out them shortening a bit.  Juventude could be a good handicap bet, both could be due a bit of regression vs. current opinion.  Flamengo I think they will have a stronger lineup than I’ve used for these prices so I’m not too confident there.  Sport Recife have some nice new players that probably aren’t getting quite enough weight.

I’m working on a lot of new content, including more game state material (considering if teams should take a different approach when they lead) and more about my ratings that produce these odds, stay tuned!