Syzygy Analytics

Last week I went through the last 10 years of home advantage in the top 5 European leagues and showed a surprising decline in home advantage last season.

I’ve done more analysis using a more detailed calculation for home advantage (using shots instead of just goals) and found that last year just looks like an anomalous year:

My model implied home advantage is using shots and passes to create something more like xG than just goals.  The model implied home advantage is not even quite within the 99% confidence interval of home advantage using just goals.  I’m now back to believing home advantage is steady and last year was a bit of a freak.

Premier League Fixture Adjustment

I see quite a lot of bad information around on schedule strength so I thought I would post my own.  I converted it all into total goals (or xG, same thing) for easier reading:

The first column is what to add to each team’s goal (or xG) difference to level out the early schedule bias.  The 2^nd column is the goal difference you would expect for a completely average team that had played the same fixtures as each team.