2 weeks in and the competitiveness of the Premier League is at an all time high. There have been some surprising performances by teams (Arsenal vs. Manchester United and Newcastle vs. Liverpool stand out) so far this season which results in some mixed-up performance ratings for each team’s first 2 games (see the light grey bars in the graph).
Arsenal
Arsenal put in a strong performance against Leeds affirming their title credentials, their untroubled defence as promising as all the goals scored. During fit spells last season, their performance levels were within touching distance of Liverpool. They’ve picked up some injuries already and made a slow start against Manchester United which will be a source of hope for rivals. Eze and Gyokeres will be important signings as an 80pts expectation can turn into 70 or 90pts without much difficulty.
Arsenal plays Liverpool this weekend at Anfield and the two teams are currently rated very close to equal in the betting markets (accounting for home advantage).
Aston Villa
Villa suffered a disappointing result against Brentford but carried a reasonable threat most of the game. They played like the ~6th best last season but the Europa League might be their best hope of extra excitement this year.
Bournemouth
I’ve seen Bournemouth rated close to +0.5 xGD per game in raw xG models for the 2024/25 season. I think that overrates how good they were, but they are still decent and have put in a couple of solid performances so far this season (despite some altered lineups).
Brentford
Brentford’ opening 2 performances show some cause for concern. Given the players they have lost (Mbeumo, Norgaard, Wissa (still at the club)) it’s understandable. Hopefully the incoming players can perform in their place (e.g. Ouattara from Bournemouth and Milambo from Feyenoord).
Brighton
A disappointing start to the season for Brighton who will be hoping for a strong season based off being potentially one of the strongest teams in the league with no European competition.
Burnley
Early days and a 2-match sample that includes 1 match against another relegation rival is not much to go on. They’ve been attracting some money in the betting markets in the first 2 weeks though, and at odds that imply they’ve got something about them…
Chelsea
Lots of goals against West Ham but for me I’m not seeing performance levels that imply they are likely title contenders. I am surprised they have been trading at >10% for the title so far this season.
Crystal Palace
Palace had solid top half performance levels last season, but these levels may be hard to maintain with the loss of Eze and probably Guehi.
Everton
Jack Grealish/Tierno Barry/Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall look like potentially strong signings and they haven’t lost any top performers from last season (so far in the window). Unless the promoted teams are really good, they will be able to avoid a relegation fight (Jarrad Brainthwaite’s fitness is important though).
Fulham
Fulham showed very solid performance levels through last season and have started similarly this season as well. Opta’s predicted table has them 15th for this year (https://theanalyst.com/competition/premier-league/table) and they are available as a 3.0 shot for top half (2/1 or +200) in long term markets neither of which I agree with.
Leeds
One good performance, one bad performance. Their betting odds rated them only slightly worse than Everton in their first game which is promising for Leeds fans (although Everton’s lineup for their first game looks a fair bit weaker than their lineup did for their second game).
Liverpool
Liverpool have started their title defence with a couple of questionable performances but it’s a little early to say whether they are going to drop off this season or not.
Manchester City
Last season City had their poor spell in the first half before recovering and stabilising around a performance level that was decent but not at a level that can compete for the title (at least not regularly). If Rodri is not the key to re-elevate them to levels of previous seasons, I am not sure they will be strong contenders for the title this year.
Manchester United
I’m of the opinion that Amorim has not had that long yet because last season was more of an EL campaign than an EPL campaign. If they don’t show performance levels that could compete for the top 6 over the next couple of months that would be unacceptable with United’s current squad (although I generally don’t believe managers are as important as they are made out to be).
Newcastle
2 very strong performances for Newcastle to start the season but often red cards can slightly randomise performance levels (beyond the required red card adjustment). It’s a shame about the Isak situation.
Nottingham Forest
2 solid performances for Forest so far. Their big performance drop off towards the end of last season and the reason behind it is a point of contention, if they’ve recovered from that I think they could surprise again this season. I’ve seen analysts saying they will struggle this season if they don’t lead so many minutes which is a very questionable theory – leading games generally hurts performance levels.
Sunderland
Their performances so far are not too much to write home about. I think it’s certain they will be in a relegation battle and it’s still hard to say where they stand. A lot of strong signings but if they don’t work out it’s possible Burnley might be stronger.
Tottenham
I think Tottenham are the stand-out team after 2 games compared to prior expectations. Last season was so EL and injury affected maybe we shouldn’t be so surprised. Their lineup (in attack anyway) is quite different to last season so uncertainty reigns but at this point even 3rd place could be quite plausible.
West Ham
A poor start – if Burnley or Sunderland can settle at a decent level there will be trouble ahead. Not as bad as the goals so far makes it look but I haven’t rated West Ham very well for a while, even for their 9th place finish in 2023/24.
Wolverhampton Wanderers
A poor start – if Burnley or Sunderland can settle at a decent level there will be trouble ahead. Yes, I just copy & pasted from West Ham – in fact the performance levels of these two teams last season were remarkably similar as well. Hopefully these teams can find a signing before the window closes.
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