Week 1 of the new season is done so let’s look at how each team opened their campaign. I’m going to analyse each team’s opening performance using my team ratings that heavily focus on predicting future performance rather than just describing what happened.
As we only have 1 game so far, I biased my rating system not to goals and big chances but towards passes and shot counts. My rating system:
- Only looks at on pitch events
- Includes many relevant adjustments such as fixture, red cards and game state
- Ignores goals (for today only)
- I’ve doubled the value of dangerous passes (for today only)
- The title contenders/top 4 contenders’ markers are to illustrate how different performance levels correspond to different end of season outcomes. It does not mean ‘I think Brentford are going down’, it means if Brentford perform every week at this level they will almost certainly be relegated.
- I’ve estimated ratings for each team to use as fixture adjustments. This is harder for promoted teams that are new to the division so might mean their opponents performances got over/under rated.
Liverpool vs. Bournemouth
Liverpool’s performance on Friday rates as steady but not exceptional. In turn this means Bournemouth’s performance was very respectable. Whether Liverpool will be regarded as England’s finest again come May is very much up in the air.
Aston Villa vs. Newcastle United
Even with credit reduced for Newcastle’s play while up a player this still rates as a strong Newcastle performance. However it does seem to me that, even when adjusted for, red cards still skew performances quite randomly. Villa had a poor first half but started to look much more competitive in the 2nd half until the red card incident (admittedly the red card was essentially a big chance conceded). Overall though Villa’s performance was one of the poorest relative to expectation of any team in week 1.
Brighton vs. Fulham
A fairly ordinary performance from Brighton in my opinion. On Soccer Saturday they said Fulham had a big chance before their equalizer, but I never saw it in any highlight videos? I think Fulham are really solid but they’ve not really signed anyone and the strength/depth of the PL is only going up (I don’t think they are relegation candidates however).
Sunderland vs. West Ham
Sunderland’s performance bar may look surprisingly low to you on the plot but if there weren’t any surprises would there be any point to this article?! Take out the goals and their performance level on Saturday does not wow. The performance indicated is still higher than all the relegated teams from last season however – it would be great if we have a bigger relegation battle this year.
Tottenham vs. Burnley
Large betting syndicates put big money down on Burnley in this game as Tottenham kicked off at only an implied chance of 62% to win the game (down from ~72% just a day prior). This is a good sign for Burnley, but the result wasn’t. The performance wasn’t great but could have been much worse – again there’s hope that a new promoted team is going to be competitive.
Wolves vs. Manchester City
Yes Manchester City cruised to an easy win but the theme of this week is another performance that wasn’t absolutely crushing. Manchester City’s performance here projects a performance of about +1 GD per game for them which is below Liverpool’s performance last season.
Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace
Eze’s disallowed free kick will be the main memory for most, but my analysis interprets this as a good Chelsea performance. Can they be title contenders – my view is they are a bit away still.
Nottingham Forest vs. Brentford
Forest played well last season, but their performance really degraded towards the end which was a worry for this season. Possibly it was fatigue though, as they have started this season with a strong game. I’ve seen some analysts discredit their performances last year because they took early leads and spent a lot of time ahead? I don’t agree with this take, I think leading game states are more difficult. I have written 2 articles so far on this topic if you want to read more:
Manchester United vs. Arsenal
My game states adjustments that boost Arsenal for sitting on lead all game can only do so much so, as you might have expected, United’s performance on Sunday does rate well. I think Gyokeres was a fairly big issue for Arsenal’s attack. I think this game must have been a baptism of fire for him – such a difficult tie in the Premier League with a new team. His career progression is quite unusual for a centre forward expected to lift an already elite team to a title (he is 27 and had barely played opposition from the top 5 leagues before this game.)
This could be Arsenal’s year at last, but if you exclude the result, this game alone is not saying it will be. Manchester United are going to improve by for a number of reasons this season but how much is difficult to answer.
Leeds vs. Everton
This was a strong performance from Leeds – maybe they won’t even be in a relegation fight this year…
You can get in touch with me about anything at x.com/samh112358 or syzygyanalytics.bsky.social
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