The MLS season begins to approach the ‘run-in’ (8 full gameweeks left) and the conferences are close and exciting.
It looks possible the top of each conference will become even tighter as some of the teams that are currently adrift have strong underlying performances.
The ‘Next lineup strength column’ is used for my betting predictions below. I am estimating the strength of each team’s current starting XI vs. their average lineup for this whole season. For example, LAFC are likely putting out a stronger lineup for their next game (with the signings of Son and a fairly fit team) whereas Charlotte FC have sold players and have key injuries (e.g. Pep Biel).
On to this weekend’s matches:
The green cells in the right-most column mean I rate the home team’s chances as higher than current betting market (Thursday 14th August). I think a 0.1 goal difference is necessary to even consider a bet. I got the idea to compare the match lines like this from a Ted Knutson article on thetransferflow.com earlier in the year.
Orlando City vs. Sporting Kansas City
This is showing as the standout bet of the weekend. Sporting Kansas have spent a lot of minutes losing and have a very poor big chance difference, both of which earn them quite large negative adjustments. Robert Voloder (who looks like an important defender) has just returned but Erik Thommy and Joaquin Fernandez are likely out. I hope this is a wash but Kansas’s decent performance last time out against San Diego does worry me a bit. Orlando has lost Cesar Araujo to suspension, but I don’t think he’s extremely key. Back Orlando -1.25 at 1.88+ / -114+
CF Montreal vs. DC United
I don’t think either of these teams have been quite as poor as their miserable league position. Both teams recent performances have been really poor though. I have a small lean to DC United but not enough for a bet right now unless something changes.
New England Revolution vs. Los Angeles FC
Showing some value on New England but I’m not very confident about it. Matt Turner looks a good upgrade in goal for NE but Son’s influence is fairly large. LA also have signed Mathieu Choinière. I am close to backing New England not to lose but leaving it for now.
Toronto FC vs. Columbus Crew
Granted Toronto FC have been very poor for large parts of the season but their 1st XI is starting to look decent to me. Milhailovic is a strong signing, Flores/Laryea/Pettreta/Osorio are fit. Matty Longstaff has left but I don’t think that hurts them too much. Toronto did used to have Bernardeschi so I’m not totally confident, but I will have a bet on Toronto not to lose at as close to evens (+100) as possible.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs. Houston Dynamo
Vancouver have just signed Thomas Muller while Houston have a decent looking new central defender called Antonio Carlos. I expect Muller to make more of a difference than Carlos and Vancouver are quite surprisingly strong this season so I’m going for a small bet on Vancouver Whitecaps at 1.7 (-140).
Keep an eye on my blog for another part on game state analysis and also some Premier League performance reviews when the season starts! Contact me at x.com/samh112358 or syzygyanalytics.bsky.social about anything!
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