Let’s look ahead to the MLS games this weekend.
The following odds are my derived “true odds” for each match using performances from every game this season. I will consider extra factors on a game by game basis.
I am going to compare my dnb price of the home team to the market (on the 2nd July).
New York City vs. Toronto FC
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = +2.2%
Bernardeschi and Insigne have left Toronto apparently. 2.2% is essentially 0% after considering error margins but maybe New York City look good here. Insigne is not really a loss, Bernardeschi is. Toronto have a couple of players getting more minutes recently (Longstaff, Dominguez) who are helping although having said that Deybi Flores is still playing in the Gold Cup. I’m leaving this for now….
FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = +17.8%
Dallas have not played particularly well really but nor have Minnesota. Ibeagha is back from his red card suspension although Anderson Julio might be out. I think Dallas are my favourite bet for the moment. Edit: Minnesota have played back from internationals so not sure now
Colorado Rapids vs. Sporting Kansas City
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = +1.5%
Expected to like the rapids more but leaving for now.
LA Galaxy vs Vancouver Whitecaps
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = -20.5%
This is showing as an away bet but I’m not backing anything right now. Vancouver are not super healthy, Galaxy should get some regression to last season and their team is a bit healthier than it has been. I’m maybe being biased because I had a decent bet on them to not lose against San Jose but before I saw my own prices I wanted to back the Galaxy. My ratings here are not using any regression to last season but if they did (Galaxy’s starting 11 last season was pretty similar) Galaxy drop from 1 in 4 to win this game all the way down to 1 in 3 which reduces the implied edge of 20.5% for backing Vancouver by a lot.
Charlotte vs. Orlando City
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = +12.0%
I thought I was backing Charlotte until I realized Zaha was suspended (the good behaviour incentive is a bit confusing. He has 6 yellow cards now but his yellow card last weekend counts as his 5th because his tally got reduced for not picking up any yellows in a 5 game stretch previously.) I might come back to this game to see if I still have enough of a Charlotte lean.
CF Montreal vs. Inter Miami
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = -0.2%
This seems like a bet on Montreal with Inter Miami coming off the CWC? I would think Messi might get a rest or there will be a hangover. I have been quite high on Montreal most of the season which is a little controversial I suspect.
DC United vs. Atlanta United
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = +13.6%
Peglow and Benteke returning is good news for DC United. Aaron Herrera still out with Guatemela is not so good. I will consider DC Utd more in the coming days. Edit: Ok Pirani is suspended. Not sure if Herrera will be back, probably not. Leaving for now
FC Cincinatti vs. Chicago Fire
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = -1.9%
Austin FC vs. Los Angeles FC
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = 5.3%
Nashville SC vs. Philadelphia Union
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = -0.8%
Real Salt Lake vs. St. Louis City
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = 4.0%
Portland Timbers vs. New England Revolution
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = -4.9%
San Diego FC vs. Houston Dynamo FC
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = 3.9%
San Jose Earthquakes vs New York Red Bulls
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = 0.1%
Seattle Sounders vs. Columbus Crew
Implied ROI backing home team dnb = -4.7%
None of these matches look controversially priced from my perspective. I might have missed some relevant player absences/returns though so watch this space. That’s all for now but I hope to post again closer to the kick offs.
Syzygy Analytics 
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