Month: October 2025

  • Welcome to my blog, today I’m briefly covering 3 different topics of interest on fixture adjustments, Premier League predictions and score effects. How many iterations does a fixture adjustment need? When attempted to rate a team accurately to create forecasts we are faced with a circular problem.  Our output will hopefully be accurate team ratings,…

  • Last week I went through the last 10 years of home advantage in the top 5 European leagues and showed a surprising decline in home advantage last season. I’ve done more analysis using a more detailed calculation for home advantage (using shots instead of just goals) and found that last year just looks like an…